According to new research, BTC may keep trading sideways for a further two years before resuming its bull run. Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted historical tendencies implying that holders would have to endure till 2024 with their next moonshot.
It’s really difficult to predict precisely since there are so many factors that can influence the market, such as geopolitical crises, such as war, or recent pandemic crisis.
According to UBS latest research analyst Kevin Denne, bitcoin bulls may have to wait a very long time for the bitcoin to retrace all-time highs. Bulls will have to wait almost 2 years if the bitcoin bubble continues the Dow Jones’ recovery path after the 1929 stock market crash.
Eight months down, Twenty five to wait?
Bitcoin’s performance well over preceding year has frustrated observers, with the much-anticipated “blow-off” peak in Q4 2021 dropping far short of expectations.
The debate concerning the relationship between price and Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles shifted after BTC/USD lost roughly 50% of those meager new all-time highs.
According to Cointelegraph, the market was accustomed to a macro price peak occurring once every four years, notably the year following each of Bitcoin’s block incentive halving events.
The price action, on the other hand, is now less anticipated. While there are other elements that influence it, this does not necessarily imply that bulls will catch a break at varying times in the present cycle.
According to Brandt’s statistics, the next Bitcoin impulse wave may not occur until May 2024, which coincides almost exactly with the next transaction subsidy halving.
This would have been a year too soon for a shoot top but looking at historical trends that go beyond halving cycles, it may still provide a 10-fold price increase.
“The last 2 times BTC surged 10X or more, the next level of the rocket took an average of 33 months to kick in,” Brandt noted.
“The next rocket stage will be launched in May 2024, if history tends to repeat itself (which I doubt).”
One level at a time
Analysts have largely pointed the finger at macro events as a factor that might keep Bitcoin depressed.
If central bank regulation is successful, risk assets should be put under pressure. A long period of high hyperinflation and low interest rates, on the other hand, provides a bleak picture for Bitcoin – at least in the near run.
Once the immediate shock of these occurrences wears off, the status quo could shift. Both Arthur Hayes, the ex-CEO of BitMEX, and Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone are far more optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term than in the short term.
“Bitcoin is a risk-free refuge. Gold is a risk-free investment. “This year will be the first true market test of Bitcoin as an unverified theoretical safe haven,” statistician Willy Woo predicted in March about the 2022 outlook.
Some market participants are concerned that a so-called “crypto players” or an extended time of endurement is on the horizon as a result of the recent price decrease in cryptocurrencies.